What is Pitch Value? Definition, Formula, and Example
Pitch value measures how many runs above or below average a pitcher generates from a specific pitch type by summing the change in run expectancy for every pitch of that type thrown.
What Is Pitch Value?
Pitch value quantifies the run impact of a single pitch type — four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, curveball, cutter, sinker — by summing the run-expectancy change produced each time that pitch is thrown. A positive value for a pitcher means the pitch is suppressing runs; a negative value means hitters are profiting from it. FanGraphs publishes pitch values under labels like wFB (four-seam fastball), wSL (slider), wCH (changeup), wCB (curveball), wCT (cutter), and wSI (sinker) for every qualified pitcher in their database.
How Pitch Value Is Calculated
Pitch value uses the linear weights framework — the same engine powering wOBA and wRC+. Every pitch outcome (ball, called strike, swinging strike, foul, batted-ball contact type, strikeout, walk, hit by pitch) carries a known average run-expectancy value derived from historical play-by-play data. When a fastball generates a swinging strikeout with two runners on, run expectancy drops sharply; when that same pitch is barreled into the seats, run expectancy spikes.
Cumulative formula:
wPitch = Σ (run expectancy change for each pitch of that type)
Because pitchers who throw more innings accumulate more pitches of every type, FanGraphs also publishes per-100-pitch normalized versions (wFB/C, wSL/C, wCH/C, etc.):
wPitch/C = (wPitch ÷ pitches thrown) × 100
Benchmarks for per-100 values:
- Above +2.0: Elite weapon
- +0.5 to +2.0: Above average
- −0.5 to +0.5: Average
- −0.5 to −1.5: Below average
- Below −1.5: Active liability
Real Example: Spencer Strider, 2023
Spencer Strider's four-seam fastball in 2023 posted a cumulative wFB of +18.4 and a per-100 wFB/C of +2.3 — among the best single-pitch values that season. He averaged 99.1 mph on the heater, paired it with a slider recording wSL/C of +1.8, and finished with a 2.35 ERA over 186.2 innings. Both primary offerings were independently elite, not one masking the other. Contrast that with a pitcher posting wFB/C of −1.4: that fastball is actively bleeding runs, a data signal that usage rate or location must change.
Why It Matters
Pitch value is the most granular tool for identifying a pitcher's true weapons. A pitcher can post a solid ERA while hiding a badly leaking secondary offering — cumulative pitch values reveal that imbalance before the market prices it in. For front offices, pitch value trends across multiple seasons inform trade targets and extension negotiations. For DFS players, a starter facing a lineup that historically crushes sliders becomes a weaker play when their primary strikeout pitch posts near-zero wSL/C. For pitching coaches, the metric quantifies the result of mechanical changes: if a cutter grip adjustment pushes wCT/C from −0.4 to +1.2 over six weeks, the data confirms what video suggests.
In Legends Deck: Each pitch type in a pitcher's card arsenal carries an individual grade derived partly from career pitch value percentiles. A pitcher whose curveball ranks in the 90th percentile by wCB/C earns an elite curve grade, meaningfully raising the in-game out probability when that pitch is selected in a simulated at-bat.
Limitations and Misconceptions
Pitch value captures results, not raw stuff. A low-velocity fastball can post elite wFB/C through exceptional command and sequencing, while a 98 mph heater thrown predictably in the same location generates negative value. The metric also does not isolate a pitch from its context — a slider's value reflects partly how the preceding fastball set it up, not the slider alone.
Year-to-year volatility for individual pitch types is significant. Single-season extremes regress toward the mean, making multi-year averages more reliable than any one season. Finally, FanGraphs publishes hitter-side pitch values using the same labels: a hitter's wFB reflects how well they perform against fastballs, not how they throw them. The sign convention flips for hitters — a positive wFB means the hitter benefits, which is the opposite of how it reads for pitchers.