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Going into free agency on current production, the model values Shohei Ohtani highest: 10.2 expected LWAR under the declared 5-4-3 weighting, times the 2025 league rate of $5,651,790 per LWAR, or about $57,569,133 for next season. That is a transparent baseline, not a prediction of a contract: no aging curve, no market adjustments, and the board is not a list of who is actually out of contract.
| # | Player | Expected LWAR (5-4-3) | Open-market value (2026 dollars) | 2026 salary (context) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | 10.2 | $57,569,133 | $28,216,994 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | 9.4 | $53,047,701 | $40,000,000 |
| 3 | Juan Soto | 7.7 | $43,417,051 | $61,975,000 |
| 4 | Bobby Witt | 7.5 | $42,275,389 | no record |
| 5 | Gunnar Henderson | 6.7 | $38,110,020 | $8,500,000 |
| 6 | Matt Olson | 6.6 | $37,166,171 | $22,000,000 |
| 7 | Ketel Marte | 6.5 | $36,634,903 | $12,534,465 |
| 8 | Jose Ramirez | 6.1 | $34,656,776 | $18,356,711 |
| 9 | Julio Rodriguez | 6.0 | $33,967,258 | $20,185,714 |
| 10 | Elly De La Cruz | 5.8 | $33,006,454 | $800,000 |
| 11 | Brice Turang | 5.6 | $31,666,979 | $4,150,000 |
| 12 | Cal Raleigh | 5.6 | $31,446,560 | $12,666,667 |
| 13 | Francisco Lindor | 5.4 | $30,282,291 | $32,477,821 |
| 14 | Geraldo Perdomo | 5.3 | $29,965,791 | $6,250,000 |
| 15 | Fernando Tatis | 5.1 | $29,067,156 | no record |
| 16 | Tarik Skubal | 5.1 | $28,976,727 | $32,000,000 |
| 17 | Jeremy Peña | 5.0 | $28,456,763 | $9,475,000 |
| 18 | Matt Chapman | 4.8 | $27,326,405 | $25,166,667 |
| 19 | Nico Hoerner | 4.8 | $27,196,413 | $12,000,000 |
| 20 | Corey Seager | 4.8 | $27,128,592 | $31,500,000 |
| 21 | Steven Kwan | 4.8 | $27,105,985 | $7,725,000 |
| 22 | Corbin Carroll | 4.7 | $26,840,351 | $10,625,000 |
| 23 | Mookie Betts | 4.7 | $26,744,270 | $25,167,520 |
| 24 | Kyle Schwarber | 4.7 | $26,619,931 | $18,050,000 |
| 25 | Vladimir Guerrero | 4.7 | $26,472,984 | no record |
| 26 | Rafael Devers | 4.7 | $26,410,815 | $25,812,620 |
| 27 | Zack Wheeler | 4.6 | $26,190,395 | $42,000,000 |
| 28 | Ian Happ | 4.6 | $26,184,743 | $19,000,000 |
| 29 | Jarren Duran | 4.6 | $26,156,484 | $7,875,000 |
| 30 | CJ Abrams | 4.6 | $25,856,939 | $4,200,000 |
| 31 | Kyle Tucker | 4.5 | $25,625,216 | $33,000,000 |
| 32 | Paul Skenes | 4.5 | $25,619,564 | $1,095,000 |
| 33 | William Contreras | 4.5 | $25,455,662 | $9,550,000 |
| 34 | Zach Neto | 4.4 | $25,003,519 | $4,150,000 |
| 35 | Logan Webb | 4.4 | $24,720,929 | $23,000,000 |
| 36 | Alex Bregman | 4.3 | $24,325,304 | $26,300,000 |
| 37 | Cristopher Sanchez | 4.2 | $23,878,813 | $3,550,000 |
| 38 | Trea Turner | 4.2 | $23,844,902 | $27,272,727 |
| 39 | Freddie Freeman | 4.2 | $23,494,491 | $22,874,920 |
| 40 | Will Smith | 4.1 | $23,426,670 | no record |
| 41 | Dansby Swanson | 4.1 | $23,144,080 | $28,000,000 |
| 42 | Marcus Semien | 4.0 | $22,658,026 | $26,000,000 |
| 43 | Bryson Stott | 3.9 | $22,313,267 | $5,900,000 |
| 44 | Ryan McMahon | 3.9 | $21,900,686 | $16,000,000 |
| 45 | Freddy Peralta | 3.8 | $21,753,740 | $8,000,000 |
| 46 | Chris Sale | 3.8 | $21,578,534 | $18,000,000 |
| 47 | Nathan Eovaldi | 3.7 | $20,832,498 | $29,000,000 |
| 48 | Framber Valdez | 3.7 | $20,787,284 | $22,826,679 |
| 49 | Cody Bellinger | 3.6 | $20,487,739 | $50,000,000 |
| 50 | Manny Machado | 3.6 | $20,126,024 | $25,090,909 |
Expected LWAR = (5 x 2025 LWAR + 4 x 2024 + 3 x 2023) / 12, missing seasons counting as zero. Value = expected LWAR x the 2025 league rate (league payroll / league LWAR, in 2026 dollars). No aging curve, no position scarcity, no contract-length discounting. The 2026 salary column is context only (recorded allocations, where a name join exists); the model does not know contract terms, so being on this board does not mean a player is a free agent.