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What would we have said before the 2026 season, using no 2026 information at all? This page is the team-level answer to the same honest re-run as the player projections page: each club's Opening-Day roster projected with 2023-2025 Statcast priors only, aggregated to runs scored and allowed by the engine's team-strength math (linear weights on projected wOBA, replacement-level filler for the roster share the priors do not carry), and converted to wins with the Pythagorean 1.83 expectation. No preseason team win total was published at the time, so this is a reconstruction, labeled as one. The final standings sit next to every projection, and the misses are the story: the re-run overrated the Athletics by 18.2 wins and Kansas City by 14.7, because nothing in a three-year prior can see a season falling apart.
| # | Team | Div | Pre W | Actual W | Miss | Proj RS/G | Proj RA/G | Coverage (PA/BF) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL West | 95 | 100 | -5.2 | 4.99 | 4.14 | 102% / 85% |
| 2 | Seattle Mariners | AL West | 89 | 76 | +13.3 | 4.64 | 4.15 | 98% / 93% |
| 3 | New York Yankees | AL East | 86 | 93 | -7.0 | 4.78 | 4.47 | 102% / 83% |
| 4 | New York Mets | NL East | 85 | 74 | +11.3 | 4.63 | 4.37 | 96% / 94% |
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | AL East | 84 | 87 | -2.6 | 4.48 | 4.28 | 98% / 86% |
| 6 | Kansas City Royals | AL Central | 84 | 69 | +14.7 | 4.44 | 4.28 | 97% / 97% |
| 7 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL East | 84 | 88 | -4.3 | 4.63 | 4.47 | 96% / 84% |
| 8 | Detroit Tigers | AL Central | 84 | 76 | +7.6 | 4.42 | 4.27 | 93% / 101% |
| 9 | Chicago Cubs | NL Central | 83 | 89 | -6.0 | 4.44 | 4.33 | 107% / 104% |
| 10 | Texas Rangers | AL West | 83 | 80 | +3.0 | 4.49 | 4.38 | 107% / 93% |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL Central | 83 | 82 | +0.7 | 4.44 | 4.33 | 97% / 81% |
| 12 | Athletics | AL West | 82 | 64 | +18.2 | 4.65 | 4.57 | 98% / 93% |
| 13 | Atlanta Braves | NL East | 81 | 94 | -12.6 | 4.50 | 4.47 | 99% / 85% |
| 14 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL East | 81 | 79 | +2.2 | 4.42 | 4.40 | 93% / 81% |
| 15 | Minnesota Twins | AL Central | 81 | 77 | +4.2 | 4.46 | 4.45 | 93% / 88% |
| 16 | San Francisco Giants | NL West | 81 | 65 | +16.1 | 4.45 | 4.44 | 92% / 88% |
| 17 | Houston Astros | AL West | 81 | 81 | 0.0 | 4.47 | 4.47 | 99% / 66% |
| 18 | Baltimore Orioles | AL East | 81 | 79 | +1.9 | 4.54 | 4.55 | 102% / 78% |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL East | 81 | 98 | -17.4 | 4.35 | 4.37 | 85% / 86% |
| 20 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL Central | 80 | 103 | -22.6 | 4.35 | 4.39 | 97% / 77% |
| 21 | San Diego Padres | NL West | 80 | 91 | -11.0 | 4.49 | 4.55 | 106% / 80% |
| 22 | Cincinnati Reds | NL Central | 80 | 75 | +4.9 | 4.41 | 4.48 | 110% / 81% |
| 23 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL West | 78 | 86 | -7.7 | 4.47 | 4.64 | 94% / 94% |
| 24 | Miami Marlins | NL East | 77 | 80 | -2.6 | 4.26 | 4.47 | 81% / 92% |
| 25 | Cleveland Guardians | AL Central | 77 | 85 | -7.7 | 4.16 | 4.38 | 91% / 84% |
| 26 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL Central | 75 | 77 | -1.6 | 4.16 | 4.49 | 87% / 86% |
| 27 | Los Angeles Angels | AL West | 75 | 62 | +12.9 | 4.28 | 4.65 | 96% / 83% |
| 28 | Chicago White Sox | AL Central | 74 | 84 | -10.5 | 4.14 | 4.58 | 81% / 90% |
| 29 | Washington Nationals | NL East | 73 | 77 | -3.7 | 4.29 | 4.76 | 88% / 89% |
| 30 | Colorado Rockies | NL West | 70 | 58 | +12.0 | 4.20 | 4.87 | 78% / 100% |
About the method: Reconstructed after the 2026 season with zero 2026 results (2023-2025 priors only, Opening-Day rosters). No preseason 2026 team win total was published at the time; this is an honest re-run, not a historical artifact. Team win totals are derived by the engine's team-strength aggregation (linear-weights runs from projected wOBA / wOBA-against over projected PA/BF, replacement-level filler for the roster share not covered by the priors capture, Pythagorean 1.83) — not by simulating the schedule game by game. Win totals come from the engine's team-strength module (card 2551 PR1): projected wOBA and wOBA-against over projected plate appearances and batters faced, converted to runs above league by the wOBA scale, with documented replacement-level offsets filling the plate appearances the priors capture does not carry, and a Pythagorean 1.83 win rate. One uniform conservation factor per side (shown in the data file) re-centers the league on the 2025 runs environment; it applies the same factor to every club, so relative strength is untouched.
Reading the coverage column: the priors capture is the Savant custom leaderboard, which carries the players who actually accumulated major-league playing time in 2023-2025. On Opening-Day rosters that is roughly 98% of roster spots. Rookies and players with no three-year MLB track record are modeled at the replacement offsets, and each team's per-club coverage shares are in the table. Where a projection looks conservative, thin coverage is usually the honest reason.
The scoreboard, not the brochure: across 30 clubs the re-run missed by 8.18 wins on average, while the Pythagorean expectation computed from each team's actual runs missed actual wins by 3.9. The gap between those two numbers is the honest cost of preseason uncertainty: playing time, breakouts, injuries and the rookie wave. The largest single miss was the Milwaukee Brewers at -22.6 wins. Forecasts resume Opening Day 2027. See the methodology for the calibration details.