Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays: Oct 27, 2026 prediction and projected box score
Oct 27, 2026 · World Series · Tropicana Field · Locked 7:50 PM ET, before first pitch. 1,000 simulations from lineups, starters and bullpen availability.Win chance and result
| Side | Team | Our win chance | Actual runs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A |  Milwaukee Brewers away | 48.2% | 3 | 48.2% | actual 3 |
| H |  Tampa Bay Rays home | 51.8% | 4 | 51.8% | actual 4 |
Our win chance comes from a team-strength model: this season's run differential blended with last season's, the starters, the lineups and home field. Player lines and the bullpen come from simulated games. Postseason games are not validated: win chance carries a flag and there is no run total or score line.
Result vs our pick
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| TB | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Team | Runs | Hits | Walks | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 3 | 8.3 8 | 4.2 4 | 9.4 11 |
| TB | 4 | 8.7 9 | 3.6 1 | 7.5 10 |
Final: Milwaukee Brewers 3, Tampa Bay Rays 4. Our pick, Tampa Bay Rays at 51.8%, won. The projection was locked 7:50 PM ET on Oct 27, 2026, before first pitch, and has not changed since.
Winning pitcher: Ian Seymour.
Muted numbers are projected, bold numbers are actual.
MIL projected vs actual battinglineup posted
| # | Hitter | Pos | PA | H | 1+ H | HR | 1+ HR | R | RBI | BB | K | SB | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | LF | 4.7 6 | 1.1 2 | 63% yes | 0.20 0 | 18% no | 0.60 0 | 0.56 0 | 0.3 0 | 1.1 2 | 0.16 0 | proj 1.1 H, actual 2 H | 4.7 PA · 1.1 H · 0.20 HR · 0.6 R · 0.6 RBI · 0.3 BB · 1.1 K |
| 2 | Jake Bauers | 1B | 4.5 6 | 0.9 0 | 57% no | 0.16 0 | 14% no | 0.61 0 | 0.44 0 | 0.6 0 | 1.2 1 | 0.10 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 0 H | 4.5 PA · 0.9 H · 0.16 HR · 0.6 R · 0.4 RBI · 0.6 BB · 1.2 K |
| 3 | Christian Yelich | DH | 4.4 5 | 0.9 0 | 59% no | 0.16 0 | 14% no | 0.52 0 | 0.52 0 | 0.5 2 | 1.1 1 | 0.12 1 | proj 0.9 H, actual 0 H | 4.4 PA · 0.9 H · 0.16 HR · 0.5 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.5 BB · 1.1 K |
| 4 | William Contreras | C | 4.4 5 | 0.9 0 | 57% no | 0.13 0 | 12% no | 0.54 0 | 0.50 0 | 0.6 1 | 1.0 0 | 0.03 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 0 H | 4.4 PA · 0.9 H · 0.13 HR · 0.5 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.6 BB · 1.0 K |
| 5 | Brice Turang | 2B | 4.2 5 | 0.9 0 | 56% no | 0.13 0 | 12% no | 0.50 0 | 0.52 0 | 0.5 1 | 1.0 1 | 0.18 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 0 H | 4.2 PA · 0.9 H · 0.13 HR · 0.5 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.5 BB · 1.0 K |
| 6 | Sal Frelick | RF | 3.9 5 | 0.8 1 | 53% yes | 0.09 0 | 9% no | 0.39 1 | 0.45 0 | 0.3 0 | 0.9 1 | 0.08 0 | proj 0.8 H, actual 1 H | 3.9 PA · 0.8 H · 0.09 HR · 0.4 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.3 BB · 0.9 K |
| 7 | Cooper Pratt | SS | 4.1 5 | 0.9 4 | 57% yes | 0.11 1 | 11% yes | 0.49 1 | 0.48 2 | 0.4 0 | 1.0 0 | 0.24 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 4 H | 4.1 PA · 0.9 H · 0.11 HR · 0.5 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.4 BB · 1.0 K |
| 8 | Garrett Mitchell | CF | 3.7 5 | 0.8 0 | 51% no | 0.10 0 | 9% no | 0.45 0 | 0.41 0 | 0.4 0 | 1.0 3 | 0.11 0 | proj 0.8 H, actual 0 H | 3.7 PA · 0.8 H · 0.10 HR · 0.5 R · 0.4 RBI · 0.4 BB · 1.0 K |
| 9 | David Hamilton | 3B | 3.5 3 | 0.7 1 | 50% yes | 0.11 1 | 9% yes | 0.40 1 | 0.44 1 | 0.3 0 | 0.9 2 | 0.28 0 | proj 0.7 H, actual 1 H | 3.5 PA · 0.7 H · 0.11 HR · 0.4 R · 0.4 RBI · 0.3 BB · 0.9 K |
Muted numbers are projected, bold numbers are actual. 1+ H and 1+ HR are the chance of at least one, then whether it happened.
TB projected vs actual battinglineup posted
| # | Hitter | Pos | PA | H | 1+ H | HR | 1+ HR | R | RBI | BB | K | SB | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz | DH | 4.5 5 | 1.1 1 | 65% yes | 0.14 0 | 14% no | 0.63 0 | 0.48 0 | 0.4 1 | 0.9 1 | 0.01 0 | proj 1.1 H, actual 1 H | 4.5 PA · 1.1 H · 0.14 HR · 0.6 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.4 BB · 0.9 K |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 4.3 5 | 1.0 0 | 61% no | 0.17 0 | 16% no | 0.63 0 | 0.53 0 | 0.5 0 | 1.0 1 | 0.00 0 | proj 1.0 H, actual 0 H | 4.3 PA · 1.0 H · 0.17 HR · 0.6 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.5 BB · 1.0 K |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | 3B | 4.3 5 | 1.1 1 | 64% yes | 0.21 0 | 19% no | 0.63 1 | 0.68 0 | 0.4 0 | 0.9 1 | 0.02 0 | proj 1.1 H, actual 1 H | 4.3 PA · 1.1 H · 0.21 HR · 0.6 R · 0.7 RBI · 0.4 BB · 0.9 K |
| 4 | Liam Hicks | C | 4.1 5 | 0.9 2 | 60% yes | 0.16 0 | 15% no | 0.55 0 | 0.56 0 | 0.5 0 | 0.8 0 | 0.02 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 2 H | 4.1 PA · 0.9 H · 0.16 HR · 0.6 R · 0.6 RBI · 0.5 BB · 0.8 K |
| 5 | Jonny DeLuca | CF | 4.1 5 | 1.0 1 | 60% yes | 0.15 0 | 14% no | 0.49 1 | 0.61 1 | 0.2 0 | 0.9 0 | 0.19 0 | proj 1.0 H, actual 1 H | 4.1 PA · 1.0 H · 0.15 HR · 0.5 R · 0.6 RBI · 0.2 BB · 0.9 K |
| 6 | Chandler Simpson | LF | 3.8 5 | 0.9 3 | 57% yes | 0.09 0 | 9% no | 0.43 0 | 0.47 1 | 0.2 0 | 0.7 0 | 0.29 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 3 H | 3.8 PA · 0.9 H · 0.09 HR · 0.4 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.2 BB · 0.7 K |
| 7 | Ryan Vilade | RF | 3.8 1 | 0.9 0 | 57% no | 0.17 0 | 15% no | 0.53 0 | 0.50 0 | 0.4 0 | 0.8 0 | 0.03 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 0 H | 3.8 PA · 0.9 H · 0.17 HR · 0.5 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.4 BB · 0.8 K |
| 8 | Richie Palacios | 2B | 3.5 4 | 0.8 0 | 53% no | 0.12 0 | 11% no | 0.49 0 | 0.42 0 | 0.5 0 | 0.7 2 | 0.15 0 | proj 0.8 H, actual 0 H | 3.5 PA · 0.8 H · 0.12 HR · 0.5 R · 0.4 RBI · 0.5 BB · 0.7 K |
| 9 | Taylor Walls | SS | 3.4 4 | 0.7 0 | 46% no | 0.10 0 | 9% no | 0.42 0 | 0.39 0 | 0.4 0 | 0.7 3 | 0.17 0 | proj 0.7 H, actual 0 H | 3.4 PA · 0.7 H · 0.10 HR · 0.4 R · 0.4 RBI · 0.4 BB · 0.7 K |
Muted numbers are projected, bold numbers are actual. 1+ H and 1+ HR are the chance of at least one, then whether it happened.
MIL bench bats
| Bench bat | PA | H | HR | RBI | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Vaughn statistical | 0.83 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Gary Sánchez statistical | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Joey Ortiz statistical | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Luis Lara statistical | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Statistical, not a prediction that any one of them plays: expected pinch-hit and substitute plate appearances spread over the bench by how often each is used. Chance of at least one substitute bat: 77%; expected substitute PA 1.9.
TB bench bats
| Bench bat | PA | H | HR | RBI | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Mullins statistical | 0.47 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Ben Williamson statistical | 0.42 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Jorge Mateo statistical | 0.24 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Nick Fortes statistical | 0.29 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. statistical | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Statistical, not a prediction that any one of them plays: expected pinch-hit and substitute plate appearances spread over the bench by how often each is used. Chance of at least one substitute bat: 71%; expected substitute PA 1.6.
Starting pitchers
| Team | Pitcher | IP | K | ER | H | BB | HR | Pitches | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | Dustin May | 3.7 3.0 | 3.2 3 | 2.0 2 | 3.8 3 | 1.5 0 | 0.61 0 | 62 39 | 14% |
| TB | Griffin Jax | 3.8 4.0 | 4.1 6 | 1.7 2 | 3.4 4 | 1.6 2 | 0.48 1 | 64 74 | 16% |
Muted numbers are projected, bold numbers are actual. IP is outs divided by three.
MIL bullpen availability
| Role | Pitcher | Availability | Appears | Exp. IP | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | Trevor Megill | Fresh 89% | 34% | 0.4 | pitched 0.3 IP, 5 pitches |
| SU | Aaron Ashby | OK 62% | 41% | 0.5 | pitched 2.3 IP, 31 pitches |
| SU | Abner Uribe | OK 71% | 40% | 0.5 | pitched 2.0 IP, 19 pitches |
| MR | Antonio Senzatela | Tired 26% | 23% | 0.2 | pitched 0.7 IP, 18 pitches |
| MR | JoJo Romero | Fresh 84% | 54% | 0.9 | pitched 1.0 IP, 11 pitches |
| MR | DL Hall | Fresh 87% | 61% | 1.1 | pitched 1.7 IP, 24 pitches |
| MR | Kyle Harrison | Fresh 100% | 60% | 1.0 | did not pitch |
| MR | Brandon Woodruff | Tired 31% | 22% | 0.2 | did not pitch |
Availability is how much of a fully rested arm's usage he gets today, from recent days of work. Roles are inferred from recent saves and holds. 1 reliever who pitched was not on our list.
TB bullpen availability
| Role | Pitcher | Availability | Appears | Exp. IP | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | Bryan Baker | Fresh 100% | 59% | 1.2 | pitched 2.0 IP, 21 pitches |
| SU | Kevin Kelly | OK 69% | 65% | 0.9 | pitched 1.0 IP, 12 pitches |
| SU | Cole Sulser | Out 17% | 19% | 0.1 | did not pitch |
| MR | Cam Booser | Tired 45% | 34% | 0.4 | pitched 0.3 IP, 9 pitches |
| MR | Steven Matz | Out 22% | 24% | 0.3 | did not pitch |
| MR | Ian Seymour | OK 66% | 59% | 1.2 | pitched 1.0 IP, 32 pitches |
| MR | Tyler Wells | Tired 36% | 31% | 0.4 | pitched 1.7 IP, 24 pitches |
| MR | Garrett Cleavinger | Tired 45% | 41% | 0.6 | did not pitch |
Availability is how much of a fully rested arm's usage he gets today, from recent days of work. Roles are inferred from recent saves and holds. 1 reliever who pitched was not on our list.
Why the model leans this way
- Home field: 4.4 points for TB.
- Team strength: 5.1 points for MIL (this season's run differential blended with last season's).
- Starting pitchers: 2.6 points for TB (G. Jax over D. May).
Starting from 50-50, these add up to TB 51.8%. Points are percentage points of home win chance.
Fresh relievers expected available: MIL 4.2, TB 3.2.