MLB win odds and game projections for Oct 27, 2026
Our win chance comes from a team-strength model. Player lines come from simulated games. We print what the model got right and wrong next to every pick.Games on Tue Oct 27, 20261 game
| # | Matchup | Projected starters | Our win chance (home) | Lineups | Status (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIL at TB | D. May vs G. Jax · Lineups posted · Final · MIL 3, TB 4 | 51.8TB 51.8 percent, MIL 48.2 percent Postseason | Posted | Final · MIL 3, TB 4 |
1 of 1 game projected. Our win chance is the home side's chance from a team-strength model. Postseason: the model was backtested on regular-season games only. Postseason games are not validated: win chance carries a flag and there is no run total or score line. Lineups marked projected are statistical until the club posts its card.
What we got right and wronglocked games
| Date | Game | Our pick | Final | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | MIL at TB | TB 51.8% | MIL 3, TB 4 | Right |
1 of 1 picks right. A game is locked before first pitch and the lock is never edited afterwards; the pick is the side above 50%.
Model scorecardhow we score ›
- Basis
- 2026 (out of sample)
- Games scored
- 2429
- Favorite won
- 55.5%
- Log loss, ours
- 0.683
- Log loss, coin flip
- 0.693
- Log loss, home-win rate
- 0.692
Replayed from information available before each game, not a live lock.
Win chances come from a team-strength model that is level with the closing market in our 2025 backtest (0.6783 vs 0.6758, gap not significant). It does not beat the market.
Tier earned: Clear favourite (60%+) (2025: 573 games, 64.2% claimed, 63.2% won; 2026: 499 games, 63.4% claimed, 61.3% won). Higher buckets (65%+, 70%+) have not earned a label yet.
Today
All games are final. The ledger on the left is graded.
1 of 1 locked before first pitch.