MLB win odds and game projections for Oct 28, 2026
Our win chance comes from a team-strength model. Player lines come from simulated games. We print what the model got right and wrong next to every pick.Games on Wed Oct 28, 20261 game
| # | Matchup | Projected starters | Our win chance (home) | Market | Lineups | Status (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIL at TB | J. Misiorowski vs D. Rasmussen · Lineups posted · Final · MIL 4, TB 1 | 48.9TB 48.9 percent, MIL 51.1 percent Postseason | 43.4 | Posted | Final · MIL 4, TB 1 |
1 of 1 game projected. Our win chance is the home side's chance from a team-strength model. Market is the market line at lock with the bookmaker margin removed, shown beside ours and never as advice. Postseason: the model was backtested on regular-season games only. Postseason games are not validated: win chance carries a flag and there is no run total or score line. Lineups marked projected are statistical until the club posts its card.
What we got right and wronglocked games
Model scorecardhow we score ›
- Basis
- 2026 (out of sample)
- Games scored
- 2429
- Favorite won
- 55.5%
- Log loss, ours
- 0.683
- Log loss, coin flip
- 0.693
- Log loss, home-win rate
- 0.692
Replayed from information available before each game, not a live lock.
Win chances come from a team-strength model that is level with the closing market in our 2025 backtest (0.6783 vs 0.6758, gap not significant). It does not beat the market.
Tier earned: Clear favourite (60%+) (2025: 573 games, 64.2% claimed, 63.2% won; 2026: 499 games, 63.4% claimed, 61.3% won). Higher buckets (65%+, 70%+) have not earned a label yet.
Today
All games are final. The ledger on the left is graded.
1 of 1 locked before first pitch.