MLB win odds and game projections
Our win chance comes from a team-strength model. Player lines come from simulated games. We print what the model got right and wrong next to every pick.2026 season complete
There are no games to project right now. Win odds return with the 2027 season.
Next scheduled game: Thu Mar 25, 2027 (Opening Day 2027, 2430 games scheduled).
Our 2026 results
2026 (out of sample). Replayed from information available before each game, not a live lock.
Over 2429 games our win chance scored a log loss of 0.683 (lower is better; a coin flip scores 0.693, the home-win rate 0.692). That is better than both a coin flip and always using the home-win rate.
The side we favored won 55.5% of games (1349 of 2429).
Backtest tablesdetails on the accuracy page
| Set | Games | Home won | Coin flip | Home rate | Our win chance [95%] | Closing market | Ours, same games | Favorite won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (out of sample) | 2429 | 52.9% | 0.6931 | 0.6919 | 0.6827 [0.6766, 0.6889] | none | 55.5% | |
| 2025 (cross-fit) | 2430 | 54.3% | 0.6931 | 0.6895 | 0.6786 [0.6721, 0.6857] | 0.6758 (n 2268) | 0.6783 | 56.3% |
Calibration, 2026 (out of sample)
| Home win chance bucket | Games | We said | Home won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.30 to 0.40 | 38 | 37.7% | 31.6% |
| 0.40 to 0.45 | 162 | 43.0% | 35.8% |
| 0.45 to 0.50 | 403 | 47.8% | 49.4% |
| 0.50 to 0.55 | 691 | 52.6% | 52.0% |
| 0.55 to 0.60 | 674 | 57.4% | 55.8% |
| 0.60 to 0.70 | 447 | 63.2% | 60.6% |
| 0.70 to 1.00 | 14 | 73.0% | 64.3% |
What we got right and wronglocked games
Model scorecardhow we score ›
- Basis
- 2026 (out of sample)
- Games scored
- 2429
- Favorite won
- 55.5%
- Log loss, ours
- 0.683
- Log loss, coin flip
- 0.693
- Log loss, home-win rate
- 0.692
Replayed from information available before each game, not a live lock.
Win chances come from a team-strength model that is level with the closing market in our 2025 backtest (0.6783 vs 0.6758, gap not significant). It does not beat the market.
Tier earned: Clear favourite (60%+) (2025: 573 games, 64.2% claimed, 63.2% won; 2026: 499 games, 63.4% claimed, 61.3% won). Higher buckets (65%+, 70%+) have not earned a label yet.