Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays: Oct 28, 2026 prediction and projected box score
Oct 28, 2026 · World Series · Tropicana Field · Locked 7:40 PM ET, before first pitch. 1,000 simulations from lineups, starters and bullpen availability.Win chance and result
| Side | Team | Our win chance | Market | Actual runs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A |  Milwaukee Brewers away | 51.2% | 56.6% | 4 | 51.2% | Market 56.6% · actual 4 |
| H |  Tampa Bay Rays home | 48.8% | 43.4% | 1 | 48.8% | Market 43.4% · actual 1 |
Our win chance comes from a team-strength model: this season's run differential blended with last season's, the starters, the lineups and home field. Player lines and the bullpen come from simulated games. Market is the market line at lock with the bookmaker margin removed. It is shown beside ours, never as advice. Postseason games are not validated: win chance carries a flag and there is no run total or score line.
Result vs our pick
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Team | Runs | Hits | Walks | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 4 | 8.3 8 | 4.4 1 | 9.3 10 |
| TB | 1 | 8.3 4 | 3.2 1 | 8.1 6 |
Final: Milwaukee Brewers 4, Tampa Bay Rays 1. Our pick, Milwaukee Brewers at 51.2%, won. The projection was locked 7:40 PM ET on Oct 28, 2026, before first pitch, and has not changed since.
Winning pitcher: Jacob Misiorowski. Losing pitcher: Drew Rasmussen.
Muted numbers are projected, bold numbers are actual.
MIL projected vs actual battinglineup posted
| # | Hitter | Pos | PA | H | 1+ H | HR | 1+ HR | R | RBI | BB | K | SB | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Chourio | LF | 4.7 4 | 1.1 1 | 65% yes | 0.16 0 | 15% no | 0.62 0 | 0.53 0 | 0.3 0 | 1.1 3 | 0.18 0 | proj 1.1 H, actual 1 H | 4.7 PA · 1.1 H · 0.16 HR · 0.6 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.3 BB · 1.1 K |
| 2 | Jake Bauers | 1B | 4.5 4 | 0.8 0 | 53% no | 0.13 0 | 12% no | 0.59 0 | 0.46 0 | 0.7 0 | 1.2 2 | 0.10 0 | proj 0.8 H, actual 0 H | 4.5 PA · 0.8 H · 0.13 HR · 0.6 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.7 BB · 1.2 K |
| 3 | Christian Yelich | DH | 4.4 4 | 0.9 0 | 61% no | 0.15 0 | 14% no | 0.57 1 | 0.55 0 | 0.5 0 | 1.1 0 | 0.13 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 0 H | 4.4 PA · 0.9 H · 0.15 HR · 0.6 R · 0.6 RBI · 0.5 BB · 1.1 K |
| 4 | William Contreras | C | 4.4 4 | 0.9 1 | 55% yes | 0.14 0 | 13% no | 0.53 1 | 0.54 1 | 0.6 0 | 1.0 0 | 0.04 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 1 H | 4.4 PA · 0.9 H · 0.14 HR · 0.5 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.6 BB · 1.0 K |
| 5 | Brice Turang | 2B | 4.3 4 | 0.9 2 | 55% yes | 0.11 0 | 10% no | 0.50 1 | 0.54 0 | 0.5 0 | 1.0 1 | 0.19 1 | proj 0.9 H, actual 2 H | 4.3 PA · 0.9 H · 0.11 HR · 0.5 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.5 BB · 1.0 K |
| 6 | Sal Frelick | RF | 4.0 4 | 0.9 0 | 59% no | 0.10 0 | 9% no | 0.43 0 | 0.48 0 | 0.4 0 | 0.8 1 | 0.12 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 0 H | 4.0 PA · 0.9 H · 0.10 HR · 0.4 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.4 BB · 0.8 K |
| 7 | Cooper Pratt | SS | 4.1 4 | 0.9 2 | 60% yes | 0.13 0 | 12% no | 0.49 1 | 0.50 2 | 0.4 0 | 0.9 0 | 0.23 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 2 H | 4.1 PA · 0.9 H · 0.13 HR · 0.5 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.4 BB · 0.9 K |
| 8 | Garrett Mitchell | CF | 3.8 4 | 0.7 1 | 48% yes | 0.10 0 | 9% no | 0.43 0 | 0.40 0 | 0.5 1 | 1.0 2 | 0.11 0 | proj 0.7 H, actual 1 H | 3.8 PA · 0.7 H · 0.10 HR · 0.4 R · 0.4 RBI · 0.5 BB · 1.0 K |
| 9 | David Hamilton | 3B | 3.5 4 | 0.8 1 | 51% yes | 0.11 0 | 10% no | 0.41 0 | 0.45 1 | 0.3 0 | 0.9 1 | 0.33 0 | proj 0.8 H, actual 1 H | 3.5 PA · 0.8 H · 0.11 HR · 0.4 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.3 BB · 0.9 K |
Muted numbers are projected, bold numbers are actual. 1+ H and 1+ HR are the chance of at least one, then whether it happened.
TB projected vs actual battinglineup posted
| # | Hitter | Pos | PA | H | 1+ H | HR | 1+ HR | R | RBI | BB | K | SB | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz | DH | 4.4 4 | 1.0 0 | 61% no | 0.13 0 | 12% no | 0.58 0 | 0.43 0 | 0.4 1 | 0.9 1 | 0.01 0 | proj 1.0 H, actual 0 H | 4.4 PA · 1.0 H · 0.13 HR · 0.6 R · 0.4 RBI · 0.4 BB · 0.9 K |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 4.2 4 | 0.9 0 | 60% no | 0.16 0 | 15% no | 0.55 0 | 0.50 0 | 0.4 0 | 1.0 1 | 0.00 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 0 H | 4.2 PA · 0.9 H · 0.16 HR · 0.6 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.4 BB · 1.0 K |
| 3 | Junior Caminero | 3B | 4.3 4 | 1.0 1 | 63% yes | 0.18 0 | 17% no | 0.52 0 | 0.58 0 | 0.4 0 | 0.9 1 | 0.04 0 | proj 1.0 H, actual 1 H | 4.3 PA · 1.0 H · 0.18 HR · 0.5 R · 0.6 RBI · 0.4 BB · 0.9 K |
| 4 | Liam Hicks | C | 4.1 4 | 0.9 1 | 55% yes | 0.12 0 | 11% no | 0.44 1 | 0.51 0 | 0.5 0 | 0.9 0 | 0.03 0 | proj 0.9 H, actual 1 H | 4.1 PA · 0.9 H · 0.12 HR · 0.4 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.5 BB · 0.9 K |
| 5 | Jonny DeLuca | CF | 4.1 4 | 1.0 0 | 62% no | 0.12 0 | 12% no | 0.43 0 | 0.50 0 | 0.2 0 | 0.9 3 | 0.18 0 | proj 1.0 H, actual 0 H | 4.1 PA · 1.0 H · 0.12 HR · 0.4 R · 0.5 RBI · 0.2 BB · 0.9 K |
| 6 | Chandler Simpson | LF | 3.7 4 | 0.8 2 | 54% yes | 0.06 0 | 6% no | 0.34 0 | 0.35 1 | 0.2 0 | 0.7 0 | 0.26 0 | proj 0.8 H, actual 2 H | 3.7 PA · 0.8 H · 0.06 HR · 0.3 R · 0.3 RBI · 0.2 BB · 0.7 K |
| 7 | Ben Williamson | 2B | 3.8 2 | 0.8 0 | 54% no | 0.10 0 | 9% no | 0.39 0 | 0.39 0 | 0.2 0 | 0.9 0 | 0.07 0 | proj 0.8 H, actual 0 H | 3.8 PA · 0.8 H · 0.10 HR · 0.4 R · 0.4 RBI · 0.2 BB · 0.9 K |
| 8 | Ryan Vilade | RF | 3.5 2 | 0.8 0 | 51% no | 0.12 0 | 12% no | 0.42 0 | 0.40 0 | 0.3 0 | 0.9 0 | 0.02 0 | proj 0.8 H, actual 0 H | 3.5 PA · 0.8 H · 0.12 HR · 0.4 R · 0.4 RBI · 0.3 BB · 0.9 K |
| 9 | Taylor Walls | SS | 3.3 3 | 0.7 0 | 47% no | 0.07 0 | 7% no | 0.38 0 | 0.29 0 | 0.4 0 | 0.8 0 | 0.15 0 | proj 0.7 H, actual 0 H | 3.3 PA · 0.7 H · 0.07 HR · 0.4 R · 0.3 RBI · 0.4 BB · 0.8 K |
Muted numbers are projected, bold numbers are actual. 1+ H and 1+ HR are the chance of at least one, then whether it happened.
MIL bench bats
| Bench bat | PA | H | HR | RBI | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Ortiz statistical | 0.73 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Andrew Vaughn statistical | 0.56 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Gary Sánchez statistical | 0.39 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Luis Lara statistical | 0.23 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Statistical, not a prediction that any one of them plays: expected pinch-hit and substitute plate appearances spread over the bench by how often each is used. Chance of at least one substitute bat: 73%; expected substitute PA 1.9.
TB bench bats
| Bench bat | PA | H | HR | RBI | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Mullins statistical | 0.46 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. statistical | 0.43 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Jorge Mateo statistical | 0.26 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Nick Fortes statistical | 0.25 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Richie Palacios statistical | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Statistical, not a prediction that any one of them plays: expected pinch-hit and substitute plate appearances spread over the bench by how often each is used. Chance of at least one substitute bat: 68%; expected substitute PA 1.5.
Starting pitchers
| Team | Pitcher | IP | K | ER | H | BB | HR | Pitches | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | 5.0 5.7 | 4.8 2 | 2.3 0 | 4.7 2 | 1.7 1 | 0.69 0 | 81 86 | 34% |
| TB | Drew Rasmussen | 4.5 4.0 | 4.7 4 | 2.3 1 | 4.1 2 | 2.1 0 | 0.64 0 | 78 48 | 21% |
Muted numbers are projected, bold numbers are actual. IP is outs divided by three.
MIL bullpen availability
| Role | Pitcher | Availability | Appears | Exp. IP | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | Trevor Megill | Fresh 86% | 42% | 0.5 | pitched 2.0 IP, 29 pitches |
| SU | Aaron Ashby | Out 12% | 17% | 0.1 | did not pitch |
| SU | Shane Drohan | Tired 45% | 35% | 0.4 | did not pitch |
| MR | Abner Uribe | Tired 28% | 24% | 0.2 | pitched 0.7 IP, 10 pitches |
| MR | Antonio Senzatela | Out 3% | 7% | 0.0 | did not pitch |
| MR | Kyle Harrison | Fresh 100% | 66% | 0.9 | did not pitch |
| MR | JoJo Romero | Tired 46% | 43% | 0.6 | pitched 0.7 IP, 10 pitches |
| MR | DL Hall | Out 22% | 23% | 0.2 | did not pitch |
| MR | Brandon Woodruff | OK 65% | 53% | 0.8 | did not pitch |
Availability is how much of a fully rested arm's usage he gets today, from recent days of work. Roles are inferred from recent saves and holds.
TB bullpen availability
| Role | Pitcher | Availability | Appears | Exp. IP | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | Bryan Baker | Tired 46% | 34% | 0.6 | pitched 1.0 IP, 7 pitches |
| SU | Kevin Kelly | Tired 47% | 48% | 0.8 | pitched 0.7 IP, 17 pitches |
| SU | Cole Sulser | OK 53% | 61% | 0.8 | did not pitch |
| MR | Cam Booser | Out 9% | 16% | 0.1 | did not pitch |
| MR | Steven Matz | OK 55% | 66% | 1.0 | pitched 1.3 IP, 18 pitches |
| MR | Ian Seymour | Out 9% | 17% | 0.1 | pitched 1.0 IP, 8 pitches |
| MR | Tyler Wells | Out 2% | 8% | 0.0 | pitched 0.7 IP, 14 pitches |
| MR | Garrett Cleavinger | Fresh 77% | 77% | 1.1 | pitched 0.3 IP, 8 pitches |
Availability is how much of a fully rested arm's usage he gets today, from recent days of work. Roles are inferred from recent saves and holds.
Why the model leans this way
- Home field: 4.4 points for TB.
- Team strength: 5.1 points for MIL (this season's run differential blended with last season's).
- Lineups: 0.1 points for MIL.
- Starting pitchers: 0.4 points for MIL (J. Misiorowski over D. Rasmussen).
Starting from 50-50, these add up to MIL 51.2%. Points are percentage points of home win chance.
Fresh relievers expected available: MIL 2.7, TB 2.2.