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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Max Muncy against Reid Detmers at Angel Stadium. It gives a 18.2% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 31.2% strikeouts, 12.1% walks and 3.0% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.39 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 12.1% | |
| Strikeout | 31.2% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.1% | |
| Single | 11.5% | |
| Double | 3.3% | |
| Triple | 0.4% | |
| Home run | 3.0% | |
| Batted-ball out | 37.4% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | 12.1% | 0.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% | 32.5% | |
| 0-3 | 11.1% | 0.0% | |
| 0-1 | 10.3% | 30.9% | |
| 2-3 | 8.1% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | 31.9% | |
| 1-2 | 6.0% | 32.3% | |
| 1-0 | 5.6% | 36.6% | |
| 0-2 | 4.8% | 28.8% |
Career line: 10 PA, 3 hits (1 HR), 0 BB, 2 SO. .375 AVG / 1.250 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 18 PA across 6 seasons (2021–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.167 |
| 2022 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 2023 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.000 |
| 2024 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Read rate: 10 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 12.5 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Angel Stadium's factors (hit 0.98x, home run 0.95x) moves the hit probability from 18.9% in a neutral park to 18.2%, a -0.7-point move.
Reid Detmers's 2026 pitch mix (11,267 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 42.8% | 94 mph | |
| Slider | 29.0% | 87 mph | |
| Curveball | 16.5% | 74 mph | |
| Changeup | 8.3% | 84 mph | |
| Sinker | 2.7% | 94 mph | |
| Sweeper | 0.5% | 82 mph | |
| Split-Finger | 0.2% | 85 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0% |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% |
Inputs: Max Muncy's and Reid Detmers's last-three-season lines (2752 PA / 3143 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.04% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.