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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Pete Alonso against Payton Tolle at Fenway Park. It gives a 21.5% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 30.0% strikeouts, 8.5% walks and 3.6% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.33 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 8.5% | |
| Strikeout | 30.0% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.2% | |
| Single | 13.0% | |
| Double | 4.8% | |
| Triple | 0.1% | |
| Home run | 3.6% | |
| Batted-ball out | 38.8% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 13.3% | 35.0% | |
| 0-3 | 12.3% | 0.0% | |
| 0-1 | 11.5% | 34.2% | |
| 1-3 | 11.2% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 7.7% | 33.2% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 31.2% | |
| 2-3 | 6.6% | 0.0% | |
| 0-2 | 6.5% | 38.1% | |
| 1-0 | 5.6% | 37.8% |
Career line: 9 PA, 2 hits (0 HR), 0 BB, 4 SO. .250 AVG / .583 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 9 PA across 1 seasons (2026–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .583 |
Read rate: 9 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 12.5 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Fenway Park's factors (hit 1.08x, home run 1.02x) moves the hit probability from 20.0% in a neutral park to 21.5%, a +1.6-point move.
Payton Tolle's 2026 pitch mix (2,830 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 46.0% | 96 mph | |
| Sinker | 20.9% | 95 mph | |
| Cutter | 19.3% | 89 mph | |
| Curveball | 9.4% | 83 mph | |
| Changeup | 3.4% | 89 mph | |
| Slider | 1.0% | 89 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| Curveball | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
Inputs: Pete Alonso's and Payton Tolle's last-three-season lines (4213 PA / 1957 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.02% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.