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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Yordan Alvarez against Clay Holmes at Wrigley Field. It gives a 22.8% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 15.1% strikeouts, 15.2% walks and 3.4% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.61 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 15.2% | |
| Strikeout | 15.1% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.4% | |
| Single | 15.2% | |
| Double | 4.0% | |
| Triple | 0.2% | |
| Home run | 3.4% | |
| Batted-ball out | 45.5% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 12.6% | 33.8% | |
| 1-2 | 10.6% | 32.0% | |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | 31.3% | |
| 2-2 | 10.1% | 33.5% | |
| 3-2 | 8.5% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | 31.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.3% | 31.3% | |
| 1-3 | 5.9% | 0.0% | |
| 1-0 | 5.7% | 34.0% |
Career line: 8 PA, 2 hits (0 HR), 2 BB, 1 SO. .333 AVG / 1.000 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 11 PA across 5 seasons (2019–2025).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.000 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| 2024 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .333 |
Read rate: 8 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 16.7 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Wrigley Field's factors (hit 1.02x, home run 1.04x) moves the hit probability from 22.3% in a neutral park to 22.8%, a +0.5-point move.
Clay Holmes's 2026 pitch mix (10,988 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 54.0% | 95 mph | |
| Sweeper | 13.0% | 83 mph | |
| Slider | 12.5% | 87 mph | |
| Changeup | 6.8% | 88 mph | |
| Curveball | 5.3% | 82 mph | |
| Cutter | 4.7% | 89 mph | |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 3.7% | 94 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
Inputs: Yordan Alvarez's and Clay Holmes's last-three-season lines (3109 PA / 2944 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.01% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.