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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Yordan Alvarez against Dylan Cease at Rogers Centre. It gives a 19.6% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 24.9% strikeouts, 17.1% walks and 3.6% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.48 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 17.1% | |
| Strikeout | 24.9% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.0% | |
| Single | 12.1% | |
| Double | 3.7% | |
| Triple | 0.1% | |
| Home run | 3.6% | |
| Batted-ball out | 37.5% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 11.8% | 33.8% | |
| 1-3 | 9.9% | 0.0% | |
| 0-1 | 9.0% | 32.6% | |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | 35.7% | |
| 0-3 | 7.6% | 0.0% | |
| 2-3 | 7.4% | 0.0% | |
| 3-2 | 6.9% | 0.0% | |
| 1-2 | 6.7% | 33.5% | |
| 1-0 | 6.1% | 35.8% |
Career line: 26 PA, 2 hits (0 HR), 4 BB, 9 SO. .105 AVG / .413 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 27 PA across 7 seasons (2019–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .667 |
| 2021 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .200 |
| 2022 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .666 |
| 2023 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .533 |
| 2024 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .667 |
Read rate: 26 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 5.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Rogers Centre's factors (hit 1.00x, home run 1.04x) moves the hit probability from 19.5% in a neutral park to 19.6%, a +0.1-point move.
Dylan Cease's 2026 pitch mix (21,733 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 42.6% | 97 mph | |
| Slider | 36.2% | 87 mph | |
| Knuckle Curve | 11.9% | 81 mph | |
| Changeup | 5.0% | 80 mph | |
| Sinker | 2.2% | 96 mph | |
| Sweeper | 1.8% | 83 mph | |
| Cutter | 0.1% | 92 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0% |
| Slider | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Knuckle Curve | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
Inputs: Yordan Alvarez's and Dylan Cease's last-three-season lines (3109 PA / 4261 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.01% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.