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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Yordan Alvarez against Tarik Skubal at Dodger Stadium. It gives a 20.8% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 24.4% strikeouts, 7.5% walks and 3.0% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.4 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 7.5% | |
| Strikeout | 24.4% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.0% | |
| Single | 13.4% | |
| Double | 4.0% | |
| Triple | 0.4% | |
| Home run | 3.0% | |
| Batted-ball out | 46.3% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 14.2% | 31.7% | |
| 0-1 | 12.5% | 29.5% | |
| 1-2 | 10.4% | 28.0% | |
| 0-3 | 10.1% | 0.0% | |
| 1-3 | 9.0% | 0.0% | |
| 0-2 | 8.6% | 29.8% | |
| 1-1 | 7.7% | 32.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 30.9% | |
| 2-3 | 5.4% | 0.0% |
Career line: 12 PA, 2 hits (0 HR), 1 BB, 3 SO. .200 AVG / .450 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 15 PA across 3 seasons (2021–2024).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .333 |
| 2022 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .666 |
| 2024 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .367 |
Read rate: 12 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 10.0 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Dodger Stadium's factors (hit 0.97x, home run 0.93x) moves the hit probability from 21.7% in a neutral park to 20.8%, a -0.9-point move.
Tarik Skubal's 2026 pitch mix (16,105 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 35.8% | 96 mph | |
| Changeup | 22.4% | 86 mph | |
| Slider | 18.0% | 89 mph | |
| Sinker | 17.8% | 96 mph | |
| Curveball | 5.2% | 78 mph | |
| Split-Finger | 0.7% | 85 mph | |
| Cutter | 0.1% | 95 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0% |
Inputs: Yordan Alvarez's and Tarik Skubal's last-three-season lines (3109 PA / 4109 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.04% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.