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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Ben Rice against Drew Rasmussen at Tropicana Field. It gives a 19.9% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 24.7% strikeouts, 7.8% walks and 3.4% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.38 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 7.8% | |
| Strikeout | 24.7% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.9% | |
| Single | 12.8% | |
| Double | 3.4% | |
| Triple | 0.3% | |
| Home run | 3.4% | |
| Batted-ball out | 46.7% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 13.9% | 29.3% | |
| 0-1 | 12.6% | 27.7% | |
| 0-3 | 10.4% | 0.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | 28.3% | |
| 1-3 | 9.2% | 0.0% | |
| 0-2 | 8.8% | 32.1% | |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | 28.2% | |
| 2-2 | 6.1% | 33.1% | |
| 2-3 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
Career line: 16 PA, 1 hits (1 HR), 0 BB, 7 SO. .063 AVG / .313 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 19 PA across 2 seasons (2025–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
| 2026 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .500 |
Read rate: 16 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 6.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Tropicana Field's factors (hit 0.97x, home run 0.94x) moves the hit probability from 20.9% in a neutral park to 19.9%, a -1-point move.
Drew Rasmussen's 2026 pitch mix (10,471 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 37.5% | 96 mph | |
| Cutter | 26.9% | 90 mph | |
| Sinker | 15.0% | 95 mph | |
| Sweeper | 8.6% | 85 mph | |
| Changeup | 4.4% | 90 mph | |
| Curveball | 4.1% | 80 mph | |
| Slider | 3.5% | 86 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0% |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Sinker | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Changeup | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
Inputs: Ben Rice's and Drew Rasmussen's last-three-season lines (3239 PA / 3293 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.