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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Yordan Alvarez against Drew Rasmussen at Tropicana Field. It gives a 22.6% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 18.5% strikeouts, 9.4% walks and 3.5% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.47 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 9.4% | |
| Strikeout | 18.5% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.3% | |
| Single | 15.0% | |
| Double | 3.9% | |
| Triple | 0.2% | |
| Home run | 3.5% | |
| Batted-ball out | 48.3% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 13.8% | 31.2% | |
| 0-1 | 12.9% | 30.6% | |
| 1-2 | 11.4% | 28.5% | |
| 0-2 | 9.5% | 30.6% | |
| 2-2 | 8.0% | 35.2% | |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | 30.5% | |
| 0-3 | 7.3% | 0.0% | |
| 1-3 | 7.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3-2 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
Career line: 12 PA, 4 hits (1 HR), 0 BB, 3 SO. .333 AVG / 1.000 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 12 PA across 4 seasons (2021–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| 2022 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .833 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| 2026 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.334 |
Read rate: 12 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 8.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Tropicana Field's factors (hit 0.97x, home run 0.94x) moves the hit probability from 23.5% in a neutral park to 22.6%, a -0.9-point move.
Drew Rasmussen's 2026 pitch mix (10,471 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 37.5% | 96 mph | |
| Cutter | 26.9% | 90 mph | |
| Sinker | 15.0% | 95 mph | |
| Sweeper | 8.6% | 85 mph | |
| Changeup | 4.4% | 90 mph | |
| Curveball | 4.1% | 80 mph | |
| Slider | 3.5% | 86 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% |
Inputs: Yordan Alvarez's and Drew Rasmussen's last-three-season lines (3109 PA / 3293 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.04% K error,0.02% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.