Loading…
Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Brandon Lowe against Nick Pivetta at Petco Park. It gives a 18% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 33.1% strikeouts, 6.7% walks and 2.9% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.27 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 6.7% | |
| Strikeout | 33.1% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.6% | |
| Single | 11.4% | |
| Double | 3.6% | |
| Triple | 0.1% | |
| Home run | 2.9% | |
| Batted-ball out | 41.7% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 14.7% | 0.0% | |
| 0-0 | 13.6% | 32.1% | |
| 0-1 | 12.5% | 29.7% | |
| 1-3 | 12.0% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 7.5% | 29.4% | |
| 1-2 | 7.0% | 27.8% | |
| 0-2 | 6.9% | 29.3% | |
| 2-3 | 6.4% | 0.0% | |
| 1-0 | 4.8% | 27.3% |
Career line: 27 PA, 4 hits (3 HR), 5 BB, 9 SO. .190 AVG / .989 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 33 PA across 5 seasons (2021–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2.200 |
| 2022 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| 2023 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.500 |
| 2024 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .000 |
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
Read rate: 27 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 4.8 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Petco Park's factors (hit 0.96x, home run 0.88x) moves the hit probability from 19.2% in a neutral park to 18.0%, a -1.2-point move.
Nick Pivetta's 2026 pitch mix (22,488 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 50.5% | 94 mph | |
| Knuckle Curve | 13.4% | 79 mph | |
| Slider | 9.7% | 85 mph | |
| Curveball | 9.3% | 79 mph | |
| Sweeper | 6.5% | 82 mph | |
| Cutter | 5.8% | 88 mph | |
| Sinker | 3.1% | 94 mph | |
| Changeup | 1.3% | 87 mph | |
| Split-Finger | 0.4% | 87 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 18 | 2 | 5 | 0% |
| Curveball | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Slider | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0% |
| UN | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
Inputs: Brandon Lowe's and Nick Pivetta's last-three-season lines (3499 PA / 2457 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.