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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Bryce Harper against Nick Pivetta at Petco Park. It gives a 19.2% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 26.1% strikeouts, 10.7% walks and 2.9% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.43 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 10.7% | |
| Strikeout | 26.1% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.4% | |
| Single | 12.2% | |
| Double | 3.8% | |
| Triple | 0.3% | |
| Home run | 2.9% | |
| Batted-ball out | 43.6% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 12.5% | 32.0% | |
| 0-1 | 11.6% | 28.4% | |
| 1-3 | 10.2% | 0.0% | |
| 0-3 | 9.7% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | 31.7% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 29.6% | |
| 2-2 | 6.3% | 30.4% | |
| 0-2 | 6.2% | 31.3% | |
| 2-3 | 6.2% | 0.0% |
Career line: 24 PA, 5 hits (2 HR), 6 BB, 7 SO. .278 AVG / 1.125 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 24 PA across 5 seasons (2017–2025).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .333 |
| 2018 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2.029 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| 2024 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.167 |
| 2025 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .533 |
Read rate: 24 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 5.6 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Petco Park's factors (hit 0.96x, home run 0.88x) moves the hit probability from 20.4% in a neutral park to 19.1%, a -1.2-point move.
Nick Pivetta's 2026 pitch mix (22,488 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 50.5% | 94 mph | |
| Knuckle Curve | 13.4% | 79 mph | |
| Slider | 9.7% | 85 mph | |
| Curveball | 9.3% | 79 mph | |
| Sweeper | 6.5% | 82 mph | |
| Cutter | 5.8% | 88 mph | |
| Sinker | 3.1% | 94 mph | |
| Changeup | 1.3% | 87 mph | |
| Split-Finger | 0.4% | 87 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 15 | 1 | 6 | 0% |
| Knuckle Curve | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Inputs: Bryce Harper's and Nick Pivetta's last-three-season lines (3870 PA / 2457 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.02% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.