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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Bryce Harper against Nolan McLean at Citi Field. It gives a 18.7% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 25.0% strikeouts, 14.9% walks and 2.5% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.47 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 14.9% | |
| Strikeout | 25.0% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.1% | |
| Single | 12.5% | |
| Double | 3.6% | |
| Triple | 0.1% | |
| Home run | 2.5% | |
| Batted-ball out | 40.3% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 12.2% | 31.5% | |
| 1-3 | 10.0% | 0.0% | |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | 31.7% | |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | 30.5% | |
| 0-3 | 8.4% | 0.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 28.6% | |
| 3-2 | 6.8% | 0.0% | |
| 2-3 | 6.6% | 0.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.1% | 30.8% |
Career line: 12 PA, 4 hits (0 HR), 0 BB, 5 SO. .333 AVG / .666 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 12 PA across 2 seasons (2025–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .334 |
| 2026 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 |
Read rate: 12 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 8.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Citi Field's factors (hit 0.97x, home run 0.92x) moves the hit probability from 19.6% in a neutral park to 18.7%, a -0.9-point move.
Nolan McLean's 2026 pitch mix (3,709 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 33.2% | 95 mph | |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 18.1% | 96 mph | |
| Curveball | 14.6% | 82 mph | |
| Sweeper | 13.8% | 85 mph | |
| Cutter | 10.1% | 92 mph | |
| Changeup | 6.8% | 88 mph | |
| Slider | 3.1% | 86 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curveball | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| Sinker | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0% |
Inputs: Bryce Harper's and Nolan McLean's last-three-season lines (3870 PA / 2617 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.02% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.