Matchup simulation · 2026 season inputs · Citizens Bank Park

Bryce Harper vs Zack Wheeler

Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Bryce Harper against Zack Wheeler at Citizens Bank Park. It gives a 19.8% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 29.2% strikeouts, 11.0% walks and 4.0% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.38 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).

The simulation: 10,000 plate appearances

19.8%

hit probability per PA
80.2% out

Outcome	Sim probability	Rate
Walk	11.0%	per plate appearance
Strikeout	29.2%	per plate appearance
Hit by pitch	0.6%	per plate appearance
Single	11.8%	per plate appearance
Double	3.8%	per plate appearance
Triple	0.3%	per plate appearance
Home run	4.0%	per plate appearance
Batted-ball out	39.4%	per plate appearance

By count

Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.

Count	PA ends here	P(hit) at count	K / BB
0-0	12.8%	32.8%	0% / 0%
1-3	11.6%	0.0%	100% / 0%
0-1	11.0%	35.2%	0% / 0%
0-3	10.9%	0.0%	100% / 0%
1-1	8.0%	32.6%	0% / 0%
1-2	7.2%	30.2%	0% / 0%
2-3	6.8%	0.0%	100% / 0%
1-0	5.3%	33.1%	0% / 0%
0-2	5.2%	31.5%	0% / 0%

Head-to-head history

SMALL SAMPLE: 45 career PA vs Bryce Harper. Anecdote only: the simulation does not use these. 45 career plate appearances meet the matchup cutoff for trivia only. Our simulation ignores them entirely: it blends Bryce Harper's and Zack Wheeler's multi-season, regressed rates instead.

Career line: 45 PA, 8 hits (2 HR), 5 BB, 16 SO. .205 AVG / .648 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 34 PA across 3 seasons (2017–2019).

Season	PA	H	HR	BB	SO	OPS
2013	6	1	0	1	2	.533
2014	8	2	1	0	4	.875
2017	6	1	0	0	3	.334
2018	10	1	0	2	2	.443
2019	15	3	1	2	5	.795

Read rate: 45 career PA is 0.1% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 2.6 points.

Park adjustment: Citizens Bank Park

Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Citizens Bank Park's factors (hit 1.03x, home run 1.12x) moves the hit probability from 18.8% in a neutral park to 19.8%, a +1-point move.

What Zack Wheeler throws

Zack Wheeler's 2026 pitch mix (24,765 pitches tracked).

Pitch	Usage	Avg velo	Whiff / swing
Four-Seam Fastball	39.7%	96 mph	18.0%
Sinker	19.4%	96 mph	10.7%
Cutter	16.6%	91 mph	18.8%
Curveball	10.5%	81 mph	23.1%
Sweeper	6.7%	84 mph	26.5%
Split-Finger	4.6%	87 mph	32.7%
Changeup	2.6%	89 mph	19.9%

This matchup, by pitch type

SMALL SAMPLE: 34 Statcast-era PAs split by pitch type. Shown for color only; none of it feeds the simulation.

Pitch	PA	H	K	Whiff / swing
Four-Seam Fastball	10	2	4	0%
Sinker	7	1	2	0%
Cutter	3	1	0	0%
Changeup	6	1	2	0%
Curveball	4	0	1	0%
UN	3	2	0	0%

Methodology

Inputs: Bryce Harper's and Zack Wheeler's last-three-season lines (3870 PA / 3892 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.05% K error,0.03% BB error).

Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.