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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Fernando Tatis Jr. against Chris Sale at Truist Park. It gives a 21.8% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 27.4% strikeouts, 6.2% walks and 2.7% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.32 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 6.2% | |
| Strikeout | 27.4% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.4% | |
| Single | 14.9% | |
| Double | 3.8% | |
| Triple | 0.4% | |
| Home run | 2.7% | |
| Batted-ball out | 43.2% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 14.6% | 32.2% | |
| 0-1 | 12.9% | 32.1% | |
| 0-3 | 12.0% | 0.0% | |
| 1-3 | 10.3% | 0.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | 32.1% | |
| 0-2 | 8.5% | 33.2% | |
| 1-1 | 7.4% | 32.4% | |
| 2-2 | 5.7% | 33.0% | |
| 2-3 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
Career line: 15 PA, 4 hits (1 HR), 1 BB, 6 SO. .286 AVG / .904 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 15 PA across 4 seasons (2023–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.666 |
| 2024 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 |
| 2025 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.167 |
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .333 |
Read rate: 15 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 7.1 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Truist Park's factors (hit 1.00x, home run 1.05x) moves the hit probability from 21.6% in a neutral park to 21.8%, a +0.2-point move.
Chris Sale's 2026 pitch mix (24,004 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 35.5% | 79 mph | |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 32.1% | 95 mph | |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 94 mph | |
| Changeup | 15.4% | 87 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0% |
| Slider | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0% |
Inputs: Fernando Tatis Jr.'s and Chris Sale's last-three-season lines (3932 PA / 3666 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.