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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Fernando Tatis Jr. against Max Fried at Yankee Stadium. It gives a 23.6% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 19.8% strikeouts, 8.8% walks and 3.3% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.47 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 8.8% | |
| Strikeout | 19.8% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.0% | |
| Single | 16.1% | |
| Double | 3.7% | |
| Triple | 0.5% | |
| Home run | 3.3% | |
| Batted-ball out | 46.8% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 14.4% | 34.4% | |
| 0-1 | 12.3% | 33.4% | |
| 1-2 | 11.8% | 31.4% | |
| 0-2 | 9.2% | 32.4% | |
| 0-3 | 8.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2-2 | 8.2% | 35.4% | |
| 1-1 | 7.4% | 32.7% | |
| 1-3 | 7.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3-2 | 5.2% | 0.0% |
Career line: 13 PA, 3 hits (0 HR), 2 BB, 1 SO. .273 AVG / .749 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 15 PA across 4 seasons (2021–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.250 |
| 2024 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .667 |
| 2025 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .666 |
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Read rate: 13 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 9.1 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Yankee Stadium's factors (hit 1.02x, home run 1.18x) moves the hit probability from 22.7% in a neutral park to 23.6%, a +0.9-point move.
Max Fried's 2026 pitch mix (20,843 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 32.8% | 94 mph | |
| Curveball | 21.5% | 75 mph | |
| Sinker | 13.0% | 94 mph | |
| Slider | 10.9% | 85 mph | |
| Changeup | 9.5% | 86 mph | |
| Cutter | 7.8% | 92 mph | |
| Sweeper | 4.6% | 81 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Sinker | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
Inputs: Fernando Tatis Jr.'s and Max Fried's last-three-season lines (3932 PA / 3618 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.04% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.