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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Fernando Tatis Jr. against Tyler Glasnow at Dodger Stadium. It gives a 19.5% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 26.8% strikeouts, 10.9% walks and 2.5% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.4 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 10.9% | |
| Strikeout | 26.8% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.7% | |
| Single | 13.1% | |
| Double | 3.7% | |
| Triple | 0.2% | |
| Home run | 2.5% | |
| Batted-ball out | 42.0% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 13.0% | 31.7% | |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | 29.2% | |
| 1-3 | 10.7% | 0.0% | |
| 0-3 | 9.8% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | 30.6% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 31.8% | |
| 2-3 | 6.3% | 0.0% | |
| 0-2 | 6.2% | 28.8% | |
| 2-2 | 5.9% | 30.7% |
Career line: 14 PA, 2 hits (0 HR), 2 BB, 7 SO. .167 AVG / .536 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 14 PA across 3 seasons (2024–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 |
| 2025 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .900 |
| 2026 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.167 |
Read rate: 14 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 8.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Dodger Stadium's factors (hit 0.97x, home run 0.93x) moves the hit probability from 20.3% in a neutral park to 19.5%, a -0.8-point move.
Tyler Glasnow's 2026 pitch mix (15,165 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 49.0% | 96 mph | |
| Curveball | 20.9% | 83 mph | |
| Slider | 17.6% | 89 mph | |
| Sinker | 8.5% | 95 mph | |
| Knuckle Curve | 2.2% | 81 mph | |
| Changeup | 1.8% | 90 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| Sinker | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0% |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Inputs: Fernando Tatis Jr.'s and Tyler Glasnow's last-three-season lines (3932 PA / 2118 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.02% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.