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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Fernando Tatis Jr. against Yoshinobu Yamamoto at Dodger Stadium. It gives a 20.1% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 23.2% strikeouts, 8.3% walks and 2.6% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.43 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 8.3% | |
| Strikeout | 23.2% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.9% | |
| Single | 13.6% | |
| Double | 3.6% | |
| Triple | 0.3% | |
| Home run | 2.6% | |
| Batted-ball out | 47.5% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 14.1% | 30.5% | |
| 0-1 | 12.3% | 30.5% | |
| 1-2 | 10.7% | 26.1% | |
| 0-3 | 9.3% | 0.0% | |
| 1-3 | 9.3% | 0.0% | |
| 0-2 | 8.5% | 29.9% | |
| 1-1 | 7.7% | 31.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 29.6% | |
| 1-0 | 5.1% | 26.4% |
Career line: 21 PA, 5 hits (0 HR), 1 BB, 3 SO. .263 AVG / .596 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 25 PA across 3 seasons (2024–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.000 |
| 2025 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .167 |
| 2026 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .500 |
Read rate: 21 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 5.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Dodger Stadium's factors (hit 0.97x, home run 0.93x) moves the hit probability from 20.9% in a neutral park to 20.1%, a -0.7-point move.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 2026 pitch mix (8,196 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 32.9% | 96 mph | |
| Split-Finger | 25.7% | 91 mph | |
| Curveball | 17.4% | 77 mph | |
| Cutter | 11.4% | 91 mph | |
| Sinker | 8.3% | 95 mph | |
| Slider | 4.3% | 87 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split-Finger | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Slider | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0% |
| Sinker | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Cutter | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
Inputs: Fernando Tatis Jr.'s and Yoshinobu Yamamoto's last-three-season lines (3932 PA / 3860 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.04% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.