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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Jackson Chourio against Carlos Rodón at Yankee Stadium. It gives a 22.2% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 25.6% strikeouts, 7.4% walks and 4.2% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.37 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 7.4% | |
| Strikeout | 25.6% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.8% | |
| Single | 13.6% | |
| Double | 4.2% | |
| Triple | 0.3% | |
| Home run | 4.2% | |
| Batted-ball out | 44.0% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 14.1% | 32.9% | |
| 0-1 | 12.8% | 35.4% | |
| 0-3 | 10.5% | 0.0% | |
| 1-3 | 9.9% | 0.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | 31.2% | |
| 0-2 | 8.2% | 27.6% | |
| 1-1 | 7.2% | 33.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.1% | 36.6% | |
| 2-3 | 5.2% | 0.0% |
Career line: 8 PA, 0 hits (0 HR), 1 BB, 4 SO. .000 AVG / .125 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 8 PA across 3 seasons (2024–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 |
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .333 |
Read rate: 8 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 14.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Yankee Stadium's factors (hit 1.02x, home run 1.18x) moves the hit probability from 21.1% in a neutral park to 22.2%, a +1.1-point move.
Carlos Rodón's 2026 pitch mix (24,612 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 47.1% | 95 mph | |
| Slider | 27.8% | 86 mph | |
| Changeup | 11.0% | 85 mph | |
| Sinker | 10.5% | 93 mph | |
| Curveball | 3.0% | 80 mph | |
| Cutter | 0.6% | 92 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
Inputs: Jackson Chourio's and Carlos Rodón's last-three-season lines (3470 PA / 3334 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.