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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Jackson Chourio against Chris Sale at Truist Park. It gives a 21.4% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 30.1% strikeouts, 4.3% walks and 2.7% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.21 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 4.3% | |
| Strikeout | 30.1% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.1% | |
| Single | 14.5% | |
| Double | 3.9% | |
| Triple | 0.4% | |
| Home run | 2.7% | |
| Batted-ball out | 43.0% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 14.9% | 0.0% | |
| 0-0 | 14.8% | 34.1% | |
| 0-1 | 14.6% | 30.2% | |
| 1-3 | 10.7% | 0.0% | |
| 0-2 | 8.8% | 30.2% | |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | 30.4% | |
| 1-1 | 6.7% | 35.1% | |
| 1-0 | 4.5% | 31.7% | |
| 2-3 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
Career line: 15 PA, 6 hits (0 HR), 0 BB, 4 SO. .400 AVG / .867 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 15 PA across 3 seasons (2024–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.167 |
| 2025 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .666 |
| 2026 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .666 |
Read rate: 15 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 6.7 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Truist Park's factors (hit 1.00x, home run 1.05x) moves the hit probability from 21.3% in a neutral park to 21.4%, a +0.1-point move.
Chris Sale's 2026 pitch mix (24,004 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 35.5% | 79 mph | |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 32.1% | 95 mph | |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 94 mph | |
| Changeup | 15.4% | 87 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0% |
| Changeup | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
Inputs: Jackson Chourio's and Chris Sale's last-three-season lines (3470 PA / 3666 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.