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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Junior Caminero against Cam Schlittler at Yankee Stadium. It gives a 22.5% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 24.9% strikeouts, 8.0% walks and 5.1% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.37 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 8.0% | |
| Strikeout | 24.9% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.7% | |
| Single | 13.4% | |
| Double | 3.7% | |
| Triple | 0.3% | |
| Home run | 5.1% | |
| Batted-ball out | 43.8% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 13.9% | 36.6% | |
| 0-1 | 12.8% | 32.3% | |
| 0-3 | 10.3% | 0.0% | |
| 1-3 | 9.5% | 0.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | 30.0% | |
| 0-2 | 8.2% | 31.7% | |
| 1-1 | 7.3% | 32.6% | |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 32.4% | |
| 2-3 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
Career line: 14 PA, 4 hits (1 HR), 0 BB, 2 SO. .286 AVG / .786 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 17 PA across 2 seasons (2025–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .834 |
| 2026 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .750 |
Read rate: 14 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 7.1 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Yankee Stadium's factors (hit 1.02x, home run 1.18x) moves the hit probability from 21.3% in a neutral park to 22.5%, a +1.2-point move.
Cam Schlittler's 2026 pitch mix (5,109 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 47.7% | 98 mph | |
| Cutter | 22.4% | 94 mph | |
| Sinker | 14.7% | 98 mph | |
| Curveball | 11.8% | 85 mph | |
| Sweeper | 1.9% | 85 mph | |
| Slider | 1.0% | 89 mph | |
| Changeup | 0.5% | 87 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Cutter | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% |
| Sinker | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% |
Inputs: Junior Caminero's and Cam Schlittler's last-three-season lines (3589 PA / 2891 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.