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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Junior Caminero against Parker Messick at Progressive Field. It gives a 22.9% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 22.1% strikeouts, 6.7% walks and 3.8% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.43 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 6.7% | |
| Strikeout | 22.1% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.5% | |
| Single | 14.6% | |
| Double | 4.2% | |
| Triple | 0.3% | |
| Home run | 3.8% | |
| Batted-ball out | 47.9% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 13.8% | 32.4% | |
| 0-1 | 13.2% | 31.9% | |
| 1-2 | 11.3% | 31.2% | |
| 0-2 | 10.4% | 29.2% | |
| 0-3 | 9.7% | 0.0% | |
| 1-3 | 7.7% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 7.5% | 32.0% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% | 33.7% | |
| 2-3 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
Career line: 12 PA, 1 hits (0 HR), 0 BB, 2 SO. .083 AVG / .166 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 12 PA across 2 seasons (2025–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .334 |
| 2026 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
Read rate: 12 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 8.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Progressive Field's factors (hit 0.98x, home run 0.95x) moves the hit probability from 23.6% in a neutral park to 22.9%, a -0.7-point move.
Parker Messick's 2026 pitch mix (3,974 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 40.5% | 94 mph | |
| Changeup | 23.4% | 86 mph | |
| Sinker | 14.6% | 93 mph | |
| Curveball | 9.2% | 79 mph | |
| Slider | 8.2% | 87 mph | |
| Cutter | 4.2% | 90 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
Inputs: Junior Caminero's and Parker Messick's last-three-season lines (3589 PA / 2571 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.04% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.