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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Kyle Schwarber against Blake Snell at Dodger Stadium. It gives a 14.1% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 38.6% strikeouts, 16.9% walks and 2.9% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.28 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 16.9% | |
| Strikeout | 38.6% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.8% | |
| Single | 8.6% | |
| Double | 2.6% | |
| Triple | 0.1% | |
| Home run | 2.9% | |
| Batted-ball out | 29.6% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | 14.9% | 0.0% | |
| 0-3 | 13.1% | 0.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.8% | 31.9% | |
| 2-3 | 10.7% | 0.0% | |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | 0.0% | |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 31.5% | |
| 1-1 | 7.3% | 30.5% | |
| 3-0 | 6.9% | 0.0% | |
| 1-0 | 6.1% | 30.7% |
Career line: 14 PA, 2 hits (1 HR), 2 BB, 6 SO. .167 AVG / .703 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 20 PA across 4 seasons (2022–2025).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .650 |
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
| 2024 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.667 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
Read rate: 14 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 8.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Dodger Stadium's factors (hit 0.97x, home run 0.93x) moves the hit probability from 14.6% in a neutral park to 14.1%, a -0.6-point move.
Blake Snell's 2026 pitch mix (22,713 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 50.7% | 95 mph | |
| Curveball | 18.1% | 81 mph | |
| Changeup | 16.9% | 87 mph | |
| Slider | 14.3% | 88 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0% |
| Slider | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
Inputs: Kyle Schwarber's and Blake Snell's last-three-season lines (4243 PA / 1445 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.02% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.