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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Kyle Schwarber against Chris Sale at Truist Park. It gives a 16.4% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 39.9% strikeouts, 9.5% walks and 3.6% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.21 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 9.5% | |
| Strikeout | 39.9% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.7% | |
| Single | 9.7% | |
| Double | 2.6% | |
| Triple | 0.4% | |
| Home run | 3.6% | |
| Batted-ball out | 32.5% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 16.2% | 0.0% | |
| 1-3 | 15.5% | 0.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.9% | 32.5% | |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | 32.3% | |
| 2-3 | 8.2% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | 34.5% | |
| 1-0 | 5.5% | 31.3% | |
| 3-1 | 4.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2-1 | 3.9% | 36.5% |
Career line: 27 PA, 5 hits (2 HR), 2 BB, 10 SO. .200 AVG / .779 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 30 PA across 4 seasons (2023–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
| 2024 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.666 |
| 2025 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.444 |
| 2026 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .258 |
Read rate: 27 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 4.0 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Truist Park's factors (hit 1.00x, home run 1.05x) moves the hit probability from 16.1% in a neutral park to 16.4%, a +0.3-point move.
Chris Sale's 2026 pitch mix (24,004 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 35.5% | 79 mph | |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 32.1% | 95 mph | |
| Sinker | 16.9% | 94 mph | |
| Changeup | 15.4% | 87 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 13 | 1 | 5 | 0% |
| Sinker | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0% |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0% |
Inputs: Kyle Schwarber's and Chris Sale's last-three-season lines (4243 PA / 3666 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.04% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.