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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Matt Olson against Carlos Rodón at Yankee Stadium. It gives a 19.9% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 28.1% strikeouts, 11.6% walks and 4.3% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.39 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 11.6% | |
| Strikeout | 28.1% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.9% | |
| Single | 11.1% | |
| Double | 4.3% | |
| Triple | 0.1% | |
| Home run | 4.3% | |
| Batted-ball out | 39.6% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 13.2% | 30.2% | |
| 1-3 | 11.2% | 0.0% | |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | 34.5% | |
| 0-3 | 10.1% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | 32.5% | |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 32.3% | |
| 2-3 | 6.8% | 0.0% | |
| 2-2 | 5.5% | 34.8% | |
| 1-0 | 5.5% | 35.6% |
Career line: 11 PA, 5 hits (1 HR), 0 BB, 1 SO. .455 AVG / 1.273 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 13 PA across 4 seasons (2018–2024).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.334 |
| 2022 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .600 |
| 2024 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.334 |
Read rate: 11 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 9.1 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Yankee Stadium's factors (hit 1.02x, home run 1.18x) moves the hit probability from 19.0% in a neutral park to 19.9%, a +0.9-point move.
Carlos Rodón's 2026 pitch mix (24,612 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 47.1% | 95 mph | |
| Slider | 27.8% | 86 mph | |
| Changeup | 11.0% | 85 mph | |
| Sinker | 10.5% | 93 mph | |
| Curveball | 3.0% | 80 mph | |
| Cutter | 0.6% | 92 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
Inputs: Matt Olson's and Carlos Rodón's last-three-season lines (4227 PA / 3334 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.04% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.