Matchup simulation · 2026 season inputs · American Family Field

Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Jacob Misiorowski

Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Pete Crow-Armstrong against Jacob Misiorowski at American Family Field. It gives a 17.1% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 39.1% strikeouts, 7.5% walks and 3.5% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.18 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).

The simulation: 10,000 plate appearances

17.1%

hit probability per PA
82.9% out

Outcome	Sim probability	Rate
Walk	7.5%	per plate appearance
Strikeout	39.1%	per plate appearance
Hit by pitch	1.4%	per plate appearance
Single	10.6%	per plate appearance
Double	2.6%	per plate appearance
Triple	0.4%	per plate appearance
Home run	3.5%	per plate appearance
Batted-ball out	34.9%	per plate appearance

By count

Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.

Count	PA ends here	P(hit) at count	K / BB
0-3	16.4%	0.0%	100% / 0%
1-3	14.8%	0.0%	100% / 0%
0-0	13.5%	32.9%	0% / 0%
0-1	11.7%	29.7%	0% / 0%
2-3	7.9%	0.0%	100% / 0%
1-1	7.7%	31.7%	0% / 0%
1-0	5.5%	33.2%	0% / 0%
1-2	3.9%	32.5%	0% / 0%
0-2	3.7%	27.6%	0% / 0%

Head-to-head history

SMALL SAMPLE: 15 career PA vs Pete Crow-Armstrong. Anecdote only: the simulation does not use these. 15 career plate appearances meet the matchup cutoff for trivia only. Our simulation ignores them entirely: it blends Pete Crow-Armstrong's and Jacob Misiorowski's multi-season, regressed rates instead.

Career line: 15 PA, 1 hits (0 HR), 2 BB, 9 SO. .077 AVG / .277 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 18 PA across 2 seasons (2025–2026).

Season	PA	H	HR	BB	SO	OPS
2025	4	0	0	0	3	.000
2026	11	1	0	2	6	.384

Read rate: 15 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 7.7 points.

Park adjustment: American Family Field

Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with American Family Field's factors (hit 1.01x, home run 1.07x) moves the hit probability from 16.8% in a neutral park to 17.1%, a +0.4-point move.

What Jacob Misiorowski throws

Jacob Misiorowski's 2026 pitch mix (4,327 pitches tracked).

Pitch	Usage	Avg velo	Whiff / swing
Four-Seam Fastball	59.6%	100 mph	24.5%
Slider	16.0%	93 mph	20.3%
Curveball	12.8%	88 mph	26.5%
Cutter	8.8%	96 mph	15.0%
Changeup	2.8%	92 mph	32.3%

This matchup, by pitch type

SMALL SAMPLE: 18 Statcast-era PAs split by pitch type. Shown for color only; none of it feeds the simulation.

Pitch	PA	H	K	Whiff / swing
Four-Seam Fastball	9	0	6	0%
Curveball	6	1	4	0%

Methodology

Inputs: Pete Crow-Armstrong's and Jacob Misiorowski's last-three-season lines (3882 PA / 2541 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.02% K error,0.02% BB error).

Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.