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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Seiya Suzuki against Jacob Misiorowski at American Family Field. It gives a 16.9% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 38.9% strikeouts, 10.2% walks and 3.1% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.22 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 10.2% | |
| Strikeout | 38.9% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.8% | |
| Single | 10.7% | |
| Double | 2.8% | |
| Triple | 0.3% | |
| Home run | 3.1% | |
| Batted-ball out | 33.2% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 15.0% | 0.0% | |
| 1-3 | 14.7% | 0.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.9% | 33.1% | |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | 33.6% | |
| 2-3 | 9.3% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 8.0% | 29.5% | |
| 1-0 | 5.9% | 35.9% | |
| 3-1 | 4.6% | 0.0% | |
| 2-1 | 4.2% | 34.5% |
Career line: 15 PA, 4 hits (1 HR), 3 BB, 3 SO. .333 AVG / 1.134 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 21 PA across 2 seasons (2025–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 |
| 2026 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1.420 |
Read rate: 15 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 8.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with American Family Field's factors (hit 1.01x, home run 1.07x) moves the hit probability from 16.6% in a neutral park to 16.9%, a +0.3-point move.
Jacob Misiorowski's 2026 pitch mix (4,327 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 59.6% | 100 mph | |
| Slider | 16.0% | 93 mph | |
| Curveball | 12.8% | 88 mph | |
| Cutter | 8.8% | 96 mph | |
| Changeup | 2.8% | 92 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Slider | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% |
| Cutter | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Curveball | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0% |
Inputs: Seiya Suzuki's and Jacob Misiorowski's last-three-season lines (3789 PA / 2541 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.04% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.