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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Yordan Alvarez against Zack Wheeler at Citizens Bank Park. It gives a 22% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 23.5% strikeouts, 11.8% walks and 4.7% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.44 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 11.8% | |
| Strikeout | 23.5% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.2% | |
| Single | 13.0% | |
| Double | 4.1% | |
| Triple | 0.2% | |
| Home run | 4.7% | |
| Batted-ball out | 41.3% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 13.5% | 36.3% | |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | 34.5% | |
| 1-3 | 9.4% | 0.0% | |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | 30.8% | |
| 0-3 | 8.3% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | 32.6% | |
| 0-2 | 6.6% | 31.5% | |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 35.9% | |
| 3-2 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
Career line: 9 PA, 3 hits (0 HR), 2 BB, 4 SO. .429 AVG / 1.127 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 14 PA across 4 seasons (2022–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.500 |
| 2024 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.167 |
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 |
Read rate: 9 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 14.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Citizens Bank Park's factors (hit 1.03x, home run 1.12x) moves the hit probability from 20.9% in a neutral park to 22.0%, a +1.1-point move.
Zack Wheeler's 2026 pitch mix (24,765 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 39.7% | 96 mph | |
| Sinker | 19.4% | 96 mph | |
| Cutter | 16.6% | 91 mph | |
| Curveball | 10.5% | 81 mph | |
| Sweeper | 6.7% | 84 mph | |
| Split-Finger | 4.6% | 87 mph | |
| Changeup | 2.6% | 89 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% |
| Cutter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Split-Finger | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
Inputs: Yordan Alvarez's and Zack Wheeler's last-three-season lines (3109 PA / 3892 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.02% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.