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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Kyle Schwarber against Max Fried at Yankee Stadium. It gives a 19.2% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 31.0% strikeouts, 12.3% walks and 5.3% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.39 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 12.3% | |
| Strikeout | 31.0% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.0% | |
| Single | 11.0% | |
| Double | 2.7% | |
| Triple | 0.2% | |
| Home run | 5.3% | |
| Batted-ball out | 36.5% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 12.3% | 35.4% | |
| 1-3 | 12.2% | 0.0% | |
| 0-3 | 11.0% | 0.0% | |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | 31.7% | |
| 1-1 | 8.4% | 33.6% | |
| 2-3 | 7.8% | 0.0% | |
| 1-2 | 6.1% | 32.8% | |
| 1-0 | 5.6% | 31.0% | |
| 2-2 | 4.6% | 34.6% |
Career line: 32 PA, 5 hits (1 HR), 5 BB, 10 SO. .185 AVG / .609 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 38 PA across 5 seasons (2019–2024).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| 2021 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .833 |
| 2022 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | .833 |
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .333 |
| 2024 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .661 |
Read rate: 32 career PA is 0.1% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 3.7 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Yankee Stadium's factors (hit 1.02x, home run 1.18x) moves the hit probability from 18.0% in a neutral park to 19.2%, a +1.2-point move.
Max Fried's 2026 pitch mix (20,843 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 32.8% | 94 mph | |
| Curveball | 21.5% | 75 mph | |
| Sinker | 13.0% | 94 mph | |
| Slider | 10.9% | 85 mph | |
| Changeup | 9.5% | 86 mph | |
| Cutter | 7.8% | 92 mph | |
| Sweeper | 4.6% | 81 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3% |
| Sinker | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5% |
| Curveball | 10 | 1 | 6 | 0% |
| Slider | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11% |
Inputs: Kyle Schwarber's and Max Fried's last-three-season lines (4243 PA / 3618 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.01% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.