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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Luis García Jr. against Max Fried at Yankee Stadium. It gives a 25.5% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 17.5% strikeouts, 4.3% walks and 3.9% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.39 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 4.3% | |
| Strikeout | 17.5% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.5% | |
| Single | 17.1% | |
| Double | 4.0% | |
| Triple | 0.5% | |
| Home run | 3.9% | |
| Batted-ball out | 52.1% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 15.9% | 32.7% | |
| 0-0 | 15.1% | 33.8% | |
| 0-2 | 15.0% | 31.6% | |
| 1-2 | 13.5% | 31.2% | |
| 0-3 | 8.8% | 0.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 33.6% | |
| 1-3 | 6.3% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 6.1% | 33.4% | |
| 1-0 | 3.4% | 33.1% |
Career line: 18 PA, 4 hits (0 HR), 0 BB, 4 SO. .222 AVG / .444 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 18 PA across 5 seasons (2020–2025).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| 2021 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .572 |
| 2022 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .666 |
| 2023 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .666 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Read rate: 18 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 5.6 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Yankee Stadium's factors (hit 1.02x, home run 1.18x) moves the hit probability from 24.4% in a neutral park to 25.5%, a +1.2-point move.
Max Fried's 2026 pitch mix (20,843 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 32.8% | 94 mph | |
| Curveball | 21.5% | 75 mph | |
| Sinker | 13.0% | 94 mph | |
| Slider | 10.9% | 85 mph | |
| Changeup | 9.5% | 86 mph | |
| Cutter | 7.8% | 92 mph | |
| Sweeper | 4.6% | 81 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0% |
| Slider | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Curveball | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0% |
Inputs: Luis García Jr.'s and Max Fried's last-three-season lines (3209 PA / 3618 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.03% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.