Loading…
Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Miguel Vargas against Reid Detmers at Angel Stadium. It gives a 19.4% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 24.3% strikeouts, 10.6% walks and 2.9% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.46 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 10.6% | |
| Strikeout | 24.3% | |
| Hit by pitch | 0.9% | |
| Single | 12.1% | |
| Double | 4.1% | |
| Triple | 0.3% | |
| Home run | 2.9% | |
| Batted-ball out | 44.9% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 13.3% | 31.5% | |
| 0-1 | 10.7% | 28.2% | |
| 1-3 | 9.5% | 0.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | 28.5% | |
| 0-3 | 8.9% | 0.0% | |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | 30.8% | |
| 0-2 | 7.1% | 28.0% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% | 30.4% | |
| 2-3 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
Career line: 8 PA, 0 hits (0 HR), 0 BB, 0 SO. .000 AVG / .125 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 12 PA across 3 seasons (2023–2025).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 |
| 2024 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
Read rate: 8 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 14.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Angel Stadium's factors (hit 0.98x, home run 0.95x) moves the hit probability from 19.9% in a neutral park to 19.4%, a -0.5-point move.
Reid Detmers's 2026 pitch mix (11,267 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 42.8% | 94 mph | |
| Slider | 29.0% | 87 mph | |
| Curveball | 16.5% | 74 mph | |
| Changeup | 8.3% | 84 mph | |
| Sinker | 2.7% | 94 mph | |
| Sweeper | 0.5% | 82 mph | |
| Split-Finger | 0.2% | 85 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| UN | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
Inputs: Miguel Vargas's and Reid Detmers's last-three-season lines (3487 PA / 3143 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.02% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.