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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Yordan Alvarez against Reid Detmers at Angel Stadium. It gives a 21% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 21.8% strikeouts, 13.2% walks and 3.3% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.53 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 13.2% | |
| Strikeout | 21.8% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.0% | |
| Single | 13.4% | |
| Double | 4.0% | |
| Triple | 0.3% | |
| Home run | 3.3% | |
| Batted-ball out | 43.0% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 12.6% | 34.9% | |
| 0-1 | 10.4% | 30.1% | |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | 29.4% | |
| 1-3 | 8.6% | 0.0% | |
| 2-2 | 7.6% | 32.8% | |
| 1-1 | 7.6% | 30.4% | |
| 0-3 | 7.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3-2 | 7.1% | 0.0% | |
| 0-2 | 6.6% | 32.3% |
Career line: 25 PA, 6 hits (1 HR), 2 BB, 4 SO. .273 AVG / .905 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 25 PA across 6 seasons (2021–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .666 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 |
| 2023 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .200 |
| 2024 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.600 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| 2026 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1.083 |
Read rate: 25 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 4.5 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Angel Stadium's factors (hit 0.98x, home run 0.95x) moves the hit probability from 21.6% in a neutral park to 21.0%, a -0.6-point move.
Reid Detmers's 2026 pitch mix (11,267 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 42.8% | 94 mph | |
| Slider | 29.0% | 87 mph | |
| Curveball | 16.5% | 74 mph | |
| Changeup | 8.3% | 84 mph | |
| Sinker | 2.7% | 94 mph | |
| Sweeper | 0.5% | 82 mph | |
| Split-Finger | 0.2% | 85 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0% |
| Slider | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0% |
| Curveball | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Sinker | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Inputs: Yordan Alvarez's and Reid Detmers's last-three-season lines (3109 PA / 3143 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.01% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.