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Our engine ran 10,000 Monte Carlo plate appearances of Yordan Alvarez against Walbert Ureña at Angel Stadium. It gives a 19.4% probability of a hit per plate appearance, with 17.6% strikeouts, 18.9% walks and 2.7% home runs per PA. Average simulated length: 3.59 pitches per plate appearance. No raw head-to-head rate drives any of these numbers; the inputs are regressed multi-season rates for both players (methodology below).
| Outcome | Sim probability | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Walk | 18.9% | |
| Strikeout | 17.6% | |
| Hit by pitch | 1.3% | |
| Single | 12.8% | |
| Double | 3.7% | |
| Triple | 0.1% | |
| Home run | 2.7% | |
| Batted-ball out | 42.9% |
Where the simulated plate appearances ended, and the hit probability conditioned on that count.
| Count | PA ends here | P(hit) at count | K / BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 11.9% | 32.0% | |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | 26.6% | |
| 3-2 | 9.4% | 0.0% | |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | 30.2% | |
| 2-2 | 8.4% | 31.5% | |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | 30.7% | |
| 1-3 | 7.0% | 0.0% | |
| 0-2 | 5.7% | 32.8% | |
| 1-0 | 5.5% | 28.6% |
Career line: 10 PA, 3 hits (0 HR), 2 BB, 2 SO. .429 AVG / 1.029 OPS. Statcast-era pitch log: 10 PA across 1 seasons (2026–2026).
| Season | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.029 |
Read rate: 10 career PA is 0.0% of one full batter season. One extra dropped popup changes the career average by 14.3 points.
Re-running the same 10,000 simulated PAs with Angel Stadium's factors (hit 0.98x, home run 0.95x) moves the hit probability from 20.0% in a neutral park to 19.4%, a -0.6-point move.
Walbert Ureña's 2026 pitch mix (2,717 pitches tracked).
| Pitch | Usage | Avg velo | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 34.3% | 98 mph | |
| Changeup | 33.2% | 91 mph | |
| Four-Seam Fastball | 17.8% | 98 mph | |
| Sweeper | 14.5% | 87 mph |
| Pitch | PA | H | K | Whiff / swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% |
Inputs: Yordan Alvarez's and Walbert Ureña's last-three-season lines (3109 PA / 1875 BF weighted 1x/2x/3x by recency), shrunk toward league average, blended with a log5 odds-ratio matchup model, conditioned on real league count-level pitch and batted-ball frequencies, and park-adjusted with committed park factors. The count process is calibrated per pair so simulated strikeout and walk rates land within 0.3% of the model targets (this page: 0.03% K error,0.01% BB error).
Head-to-head history never enters the simulation; a batter-pitcher pair shares a few dozen career PAs at most, and honesty means the model's priors are the players' own multi-season tendencies, not a 30-PA fluke. Full engine notes on the methodology page.